The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is pending, but its impact on the commodity market has continued to ferment. From the perspective of the steel industry, Russia and Ukraine are important steel producers and exporters. Once the steel trade is blocked, it is unlikely that domestic demand will undertake such a large return of supply, which will eventually affect the production of domestic steel companies.
The current situation in Russia and Ukraine is still complicated and changeable, but even if a truce and a peace agreement can be reached, the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia will last for a long time, and the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine and the resumption of infrastructure operations will take time. The tight steel market in the Middle East and North Africa is difficult to ease in the short term, and it is necessary to find alternative imported steel. With the strengthening of overseas steel prices, the rise of steel export profits has become an attractive cake. India, which "has mines and steel in its hands," has been eyeing this cake and is actively striving for a ruble-rupee settlement mechanism, buying Russian oil resources at low prices, and increasing exports of industrial products.
Affected by the war and sanctions, the steel production and foreign trade of Russia and Ukraine have been blocked, and the supply has been vacuumed, which has caused a shortage in the European steel market. Export quotations for billets rose rapidly.
Since the end of February, overseas orders for China's HRC and some cold-rolled coils have continued to increase. Most of the orders are shipped in April or May. Buyers include but are not limited to Vietnam, Turkey, Egypt, Greece and Italy. It is expected that China's steel exports will increase significantly in April and May.
