In 2021, the growth rate of China's steel demand will slow down significantly due to the strict control measures imposed by the Chinese government on real estate development. In 2022, steel demand will remain stable as the Chinese government strives to promote investment in infrastructure construction and continues to stabilize the real estate market.
Stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government in 2022 are likely to drive a small increase in steel demand in 2023. If the deteriorating external environment leads to more challenges for China's economic development, the Chinese government is expected to introduce more powerful stimulus measures, and thus bring economic upside potential.
The outlook for advanced economies is expected to weaken. Steel demand in advanced economies recovers strongly in 2021, especially in the European Union and the United States, despite several rounds of Covid-19 outbreaks and restrictions on manufacturing supply chains.
However, the outlook for steel demand in advanced economies is expected to weaken in 2022 due to inflation and other factors, as well as the conflict surrounding Ukraine.
The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is particularly pronounced in the EU region due to its high dependence on Russian energy and the influx of refugees. Steel demand in advanced economies is expected to grow by 1.1% and 2.4% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, following a 16.5% recovery in steel demand in 2021.
